The number of insolvencies in the German logistics sector significantly decreased in the first half of 2025. According to a recent analysis by the consultancy firm Falkensteg, only three companies with an annual turnover of more than ten million euros filed for insolvency. Compared to the same period last year (eight insolvencies), this represents a decrease of 62.5 percent. A level this low was last recorded in the first half of 2019.
Demand and cost effects stabilize in the short term
Falkensteg cites stabilized demand for essential and consumer goods, decreased consumer prices, and a declining inflation rate
as the main reasons for the temporary easing. Additionally, lower energy costs had a positive impact on transport prices, even though they are still considered too low. However, experts view the situation as only temporary.
Forecast: More insolvencies expected in the second half of the year
For the second half of 2025, Falkensteg anticipates a renewed increase in insolvencies in the logistics sector. Structural burdens such as high fixed costs, rising personnel expenses, and ongoing stagnation in the market environment persist. A fundamental trend reversal is not predicted without profound changes in the economic conditions.
Recovery rate in
logistics significantly below industry average
Despite the decline in insolvency filings, the recovery rate – the proportion of successfully restructured companies – in logistics remains at a very low level. In 2024, it was only 16.7 percent. Out of 18 insolvent transport companies, only three cases achieved business continuity through sale. The previous year, the rate was zero percent.
In comparison: Across industries, the recovery rate in 2024 was 33.2 percent (2023: 34.9 percent). Thus, logistics remains significantly below the average of all sectors.
Causes: Low restructuring chances and structural hurdles
The analysis lists several reasons for the
low restructuring rate in the logistics sector. These include generally low investor interest due to low profit margins, long payment terms, and short contract durations. Traffic and warehousing are also twice as affected by payment defaults as the industry average.
High fixed and operating costs severely limit financial flexibility in the event of revenue losses. Restructuring attempts often focus on short-term cost reductions, while structural transformation measures are absent. External investors are also hesitant to enter: The strong dependence on the volatile transport market, high infrastructure costs, regulatory requirements, and the chronic shortage of skilled workers are considered
