To the opening of the BVL Supply Chain CX 2025, which takes place from 22 to 24 October at Estrel Berlin, Kai Althoff, the chairman of the board of the Bundesvereinigung Logistik (BVL), has assessed the state of the logistics sector. The logistics sector remains Germany's third-largest economic sector after retail and the automotive industry and achieved an economic output of around 335 billion euros in 2024, which corresponds to about eight percent of Germany's economic output and represents 25 percent of the European logistics market.
These figures for 2024 are contained in the new Top100 study, which will be published for the first time in November by Heilbronn University
of Applied Sciences under Prof. Dr. Martin Schwemmer in cooperation with the Deutsche Verkehrs-Verlag. According to this, nominal economic output rose by 2.6 percent compared with 2023. Logistics employment declined in 2024 by about 60,000 workers to 3.35 million workers, which means a decrease of 1.8 percent.
Three Scenarios for the Logistics Sages
Based on these figures, the Logistics Sages led by Prof. Dr. Christian Kille of the TH Würzburg-Schweinfurt have prepared their autumn forecast (LOGISTIK HEUTE berichtete). The Logistics Sages have, due to the uncertain framework conditions, calculated three scenarios: a best-case scenario, a trend scenario and a worst-case scenario. In 2025 the economic output of logistics would nominally
be between 337.7 and 338.7 billion euros, 2026 between 344.8 and 349.5 billion euros (assumed development 2025: +0.8 to +1.1 percent, 2026: +2.1 to 3.2 percent). Real terms, however, for 2025 would yield a decrease of between -0.5 and -0.8 percent and 2026 a range of -0.4 to +1.1 percent.
Der BVL-Vorstandsvorsitzende Kai Althoff kommentierte gegenüber Journalisten: „Bei den Prognosen der Logistikweisen hat für mich das mittlere Szenario die höchste Wahrscheinlichkeit. Das bedeutet für 2025 eine weitere Stagnation und erst 2026 ein spürbares leichtes Wachstum. Dies korrespondiert auch mit den Ergebnissen unseres BVL Logistik-Indikators, den wir mit dem ifo-Institut herausgeben. Hier sehen wir eine leichte Erholung auf sehr niedrigem Niveau,
aber noch keine echte Trendwende bei den Geschäftserwartungen. Die Entwicklung der Logistik zeigt sich im Einklang mit der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Deutschland. Als weiterhin drittgrößter Wirtschaftsbereich hat die Logistik eine große Bedeutung für Deutschland und ist ein Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Gesamtlage.“
On Wednesday, the opening day, the new study "Trends and Strategies in Logistics and Supply Chain Management" was also presented at the BVL Supply Chain CX 2025. The top topics for companies remain cybersecurity and digitalization. Only six percent of the surveyed companies agree with the statement that the area of logistics and supply chain management is adequately represented by policymakers. 60 percent disagree, 34 percent are undecided.
