The courier, express and parcel sector expects a modest increase in parcel volumes in the 2025 Christmas season. According to the Federal Association for Parcel and Express Logistics, the industry expects November and December to see an increase of between 1 and 2 percent to around 750 million shipments from private, business and private customer consignments.
Operational peak loads and additional resources
During the peak period, parcel services handle about 15 million shipments daily, with peak days theoretically reaching up to 21 million. According to the association, the industry deploys up to 20,000 additional workers and 17,000 additional vehicles to cope with the peak loads.
Private
customer business grows, corporate shipping weakens
The focus again is on deliveries to private households. For November and December around 450 million shipments to private addresses are expected. This corresponds to an increase of almost 2 percent compared with the previous year's figure of 440 million. On average, more than 9 million shipments reach private recipients daily. Shipping between companies remains below the previous year's level. The association cites weak investment and production activity, geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing structural changes in the industry as reasons.
Muted dynamics due to the economic environment
The market environment remains tense. Economic stagnation, trade sanctions, shifts in supply chains and
additional government requirements limit growth. According to the association, Christmas business in 2025 will therefore, despite high operational performance, not bring a noticeable surge in volumes.
The industry faces rising costs. Higher energy prices, rising wage costs and persistently high inflation cause costs to rise faster than revenues. For parcel services, cost-covering service delivery is becoming increasingly difficult according to the association.
First half of 2025 with a slight plus
In the first half of 2025, the industry's shipment volume rose by 1.8 percent year on year to 2.03 billion shipments. On average, more than 13.5 million shipments were processed per delivery day. The strongest impulse
came from shipments to private addresses with an increase of 2.6 percent. Shipments between companies fell by 1.2 percent. The express and courier segment was virtually flat.
Forecast for the full year and sources
For the full year 2025 the association expects around 4.37 billion shipments. This corresponds to a moderate increase of about 2 percent compared with 2024. The basis of the figures is a market analysis by KE-CONSULT Kurte & Esser GbR commissioned by the Federal Association for Parcel and Express Logistics from October 2025. The detailed results of the market analysis are expected to be published by the association in spring or summer
