On 11 September 2025, DNV in Oslo presented the ninth edition of the report “Maritime Forecast to 2050.” According to the analysis, the energy transition in shipping is entering a crucial phase, characterized by investments, fleet readiness for alternative fuels, and new regulatory requirements.
Strategic Directions for Shipowners
The Net-Zero Framework approved by the International Maritime Organization is to be formally adopted in October 2025. According to DNV, shipowners are moving from planning to action. The number of ships equipped for alternative fuels is expected to nearly double by 2028.
Rising Demand for Low-Emission Fuels
By 2030, the fleet could consume annually up to 50 million tonnes of oil-equivalent of low-emission fuels. According to the report, this is twice what would be required to achieve the IMO's 2030 emissions
target. Current consumption stands at only 1 million tonnes of oil equivalent. DNV points to the growing gap between fleet readiness and actual fuel supply and calls for accelerated expansion of production and infrastructure.
„The groundwork for the next phase of the maritime energy transition has been laid,“ says Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV Maritime. „The IMO's Net-Zero Framework has weaknesses and there is an urgent need for more clarity on how the funds raised will be used. Nevertheless, it is already influencing investment decisions, operational course settings, and fuel strategies across the industry. Shipowners will adjust their strategic priorities based on the IMO meeting in October, which will lay the foundation for the coming years and decades.“
Technological Approaches to Emissions Reduction
The report cites several measures to
close the supply gap. This includes using existing infrastructure for biodiesel and bio-LNG in combination with traceability models along the supply chain. New ships will be equipped more extensively with energy-efficiency measures that directly reduce emissions. Onboard CO2 capture is gaining importance according to DNV. Modeling calculations show that up to 75 million tonnes of CO2 could be captured per year if 20 large ports have the necessary unloading infrastructure. This would replace the need for 25 million tonnes of oil-equivalent of low-emission fuels and would correspond to the IMO's 2030 baseline target.
Potential of Maritime Wind Energy
For 2025, DNV expects a breakthrough in maritime wind power. Wind-assisted propulsion is increasingly used commercially and can reduce fuel consumption of certain ships by 5 to 20 percent.
„The industry
has made real technical progress in recent years,“ says Eirik Ovrum, lead author of the report. „So far, these solutions have been implemented in isolation. To achieve impact, they must be integrated into fleet strategies, supported by infrastructure, and recognized within regulatory frameworks. The next phase of work should focus precisely on that.“
Integration into Strategies and Regulatory Frameworks
The report emphasizes that the various technical advances have so far been implemented in isolation. For greater impact, they would need to be integrated into fleet strategies, supported by infrastructure, and recognized within regulatory frameworks.
Recommendations to the Industry
The authors urge the actors in shipping to prepare early and to assess all cost-efficient options. According to DNV, the appropriate measures vary depending on vessel type, deployment profile, and regulatory
