The expert circle of the “Gipfel der Logistikweisen” expects that the logistics sector will grow in real terms by 0.5 percent in 2026 (nominal: 2.6 percent). This so-called trend scenario is the result of the autumn meeting of the Initiative for Forecasting the Development of the Logistics Location Germany on September 26 in Koblenz, as can be gleaned from a current press release of the Summit of the Logistics Sages. However, since the global economy and geopolitical situation are volatile, the expert circle has for the first time developed three different scenarios for the year 2026: In addition to the aforementioned trend scenario, which is described as the most likely, a Best Case scenario assumes real growth of 1.1 percent in the coming year (nominal: 3.2 percent).
A pessimistic Worst Case scenario of the expert circle forecasts a real decline of 0.4 percent (nominal: 2.1 percent).
In the year 2025, in the logistics sector, according to the expert circle, a real decline of between 0.5 and 0.8 percent is expected (nominal: 0.8 to 1.1 percent growth).
The current mood in autumn 2025 shows, according to the Summit of the Logistics Sages, a slightly negative assessment of the business situation with stable investment intentions. The experts emphasize that the overall mood remains cautious and that the broad forecast corridor reflects substantial uncertainties.
The expert circle summarizes the situation of the logistics sector in seven central theses:
- The global and trade policy environment remains uncertain.
- It is expected that cyber-attacks will increase and tie up a significant share of IT budgets.
- The hope for the upturn lies in German policy and its economic policy measures, particularly the use of the special fund for infrastructure and defense projects. However, their impact is expected only with a time lag.
- The expectations for efficiency gains through automation, digitalization, and especially the use of AI are high despite—or precisely because of—the current economic situation.
- Even with a relaxed staffing situation, there continue to be shortages of IT, planning, and driving personnel.
- The relevance of sustainability issues declines at least for projects with short- and medium-term durations as well as for tenders.
- Cooperation between companies in certain market areas will have to increase due to the market situation.
In response to the challenges, the expert circle presents
a package of measures with three areas of action:
- In financing, a Logistics Innovation Program with a strictly practice-oriented funding approach is proposed, in which impulses come exclusively from practice and research institutions as well as startups as partners. Instead of traditional funding, market and capital instruments should be used and the Special Fund should be leveraged with private capital.
- In networking, the expert circle recommends simplification through Open Source and Shared Governance, the use of cross-industry innovation potentials, joint resource use and Coopetition 2.0.
- In implementing within companies, the focus is on modernizing corporate culture with more know-how at the decision-making level, awakening a hunger for innovation with bottom-up and top-down ideas, as well as tolerance of errors and positioning the sector as an integration-ready economic area.
