The German Logistics Association (BVL) has published the figures of the Logistics Indicator collected by the Ifo Institute for the third quarter of 2025. As stated in a press release from the BVL, there are positive developments regarding business expectations:
"The figures of the Logistics Indicator from BVL and the Ifo Institute for the third quarter of 2025 surprise in light of the negative reports on economic development and unemployment figures: Business expectations in the logistics sector have made a real jump upwards and are at their best level since the end of 2021," said Kai Althoff, Chairman of the Board of the BVL and CEO of 4flow SE.
The indicator value rose from 84.2 in the previous quarter to now 91.3.
The highest reading, according to the survey, is achieved on the shippers' side with 92.9, which is an increase of 4.8 points and represents the best value since the first quarter of 2022. The largest improvement with plus 7.9 is among the logistics service providers, who reach 89.2 – the best value since the fourth quarter of 2021. There are also improvements in the current business situation
and in the business climate: The latter reaches 88.6, the best value since the first quarter of 2022, while the business situation shows 85.9, the best value in two years.
"Of course, all this must not obscure that we are still below the normal value of 100 in all areas, i.e., at a very low level. Nevertheless, the clear improvements are worth noting," continued Althoff.
The improvement, the BVL's Chairman of the Board explains, is partly due to the government's current economic stimulus programs. The BVL assumes that the government packages will spur investments that had long been held back. In addition, there is the announcement by companies to invest 630 billion euros to strengthen Germany as a business location.
"A second point may perhaps be titled 'Recovery through calm'. With the customs conclusions, at least some planning certainty has been introduced," explains Althoff.
Even if Europe and thus Germany as the largest economy and leading exporting country face disadvantages compared with the previous framework conditions, it is at least now clearer what can be expected. But in reality there is also a slight easing for companies: since spring,
the current situation has improved month by month for both shippers and logistics service providers — for the service providers it has again topped the indicator value of 90 in August for the first time.
Bright Spots and Shadows in the Individual Sectors
The look at the various sectors in industry and trade shows a very uneven picture. The automotive industry is under enormous competitive and cost pressures. In the customs negotiations the worst expectations could be avoided. In the metal and electrical industry as well as in housing construction there have recently been more positive developments. There remains a sense of optimism in the security and defense sector. Currently, the machinery industry still looks at the current year with rather skepticism; here one expects a recovery no earlier than 2026, according to the BVL.
Further negative is the mood, according to the indicator, in the chemical industry; consumers are also still pessimistic, as the HDE consumption barometer shows. In this sense, one cannot yet derive a trend reversal for logistics.
"The positive developments can thus be explained by a pronounced bottoming-out. The current situation is priced into value
chains. The question now is whether a positive trend can emerge. This will probably be largely influenced by the development of global economic and political framework conditions," says Althoff, and continues, "I am curious about the sentiment I will encounter at the BVL Supply Chain CX in Berlin at the end of October — there we have representatives of the entire economic sector in one place and we can witness live how the industry is faring — and above all, how innovatively and forward-looking it deals with topics such as AI, sustainability or demographic change."
The Logistics Indicator is calculated by the Ifo Institute on behalf of the BVL. It is derived from the monthly economic surveys for the period since 2005. To determine the indicator, more than 4,000 responses are collected from providers of logistics services (60 percent freight transport (excluding air freight); 40 percent forwarding and logistics) or from companies in the manufacturing sector (66 percent) and in trade (wholesale: 17 percent; retail: 17 percent) as users of logistics services. The overall indicator is calculated in equal parts from the results of the providers and the users.
