The trade agreement between the USA and the EU, concluded on July 27, continues to provoke discussion. The implications for global supply chains also play a role. “The newly agreed base tariff of 15 percent on most EU exports to the USA is indeed significantly – almost three times – higher than the previous average rates, but it remains clearly below the 30 percent that was discussed in the meantime,” explains René Petri, Head of Germany and Senior Vice President at the consultancy Proxima, which specializes in procurement issues, in a statement from July 29. This has averted an acute trade conflict, and companies have at least short-term gained the necessary security and stability to specifically adjust their purchasing and trade strategies, says Petri.
Reshoring entails additional risks
And further: “For exporters from the EU, the question now arises of how to absorb or pass on the additional costs. In sectors with lower margins, it is to be expected that price increases will be passed along the processing chain to the end consumer, especially in the USA. At the same time, many companies are examining alternative routes in their supply chains, for example through countries with lower tariff rates such as Mexico. However, our current Global Sourcing Risk Index shows that those who, for example, integrate Mexico into their supply chain also bring additional new risks into the company: from political instability to inadequate infrastructure to climate-related risks.”
According to Petri, the situation remains complex, for example with
pharmaceutical products or spirits, as no solution has yet been found. The tariffs on steel and aluminum of 50 percent also remain in place. The expert sees another uncertainty in the looming regulatory decoupling: “If EU standards are weakened to align with US requirements, long-term complexity and reputation risks threaten European brands.”
Infrastructure initiative for ports demanded
The Central Association of German Seaport Operators (ZDS) takes a different stance, noting that the EU has committed in the trade agreement to purchase US energy imports (mainly LNG) worth 750 billion dollars over the next three years. In 2024, according to the association, there were energy imports from the USA worth nearly 80 billion dollars. Since the German seaports are already fully utilized with the capacities
for LNG imports in the long term, the additional imports of 170 billion dollars annually cannot be realized without significant investments in the energy infrastructure of the seaports, according to a statement from July 28.
Florian Keisinger, Managing Director of the ZDS, states:
“If the EU promises to import US energy worth 750 billion dollars, then Germany must also be able to deliver. Without a corresponding investment offensive in our seaports, this trade agreement otherwise remains a paper tiger.” German seaports are crucial for Germany's supply security and must therefore be given greater consideration in the upcoming infrastructure investments, Keisinger further states. Only in this way can we ensure that we fulfill the trade agreement and avoid further tariffs and the associated uncertainties for
