Global trade appears robust – despite US tariffs currently as high as those last seen in the 1930s. The special update of the 'DHL Global Connectedness Tracker', which DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business recently published, reaches this conclusion. According to a press release dated October 14, it provides a first systematic assessment of how trade-policy shifts in the second term of US President Trump will affect international trade and international investment. The updated DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, according to its cooperation partners, is based on more than 20 million data points from more than 25 sources and provides a comprehensive overview of the most important developments in globalization and world trade.
Global trade remains on a growth path
The overall forecast of the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker assumes that global trade volume will grow by an average of 2.5 percent per year from 2025 to 2029 – and thus roughly as fast as in the past decade. One reason why trade can continue to grow despite rising US tariffs, according to the study authors, is that in 2024 only 13 percent of global goods imports went to the USA and only nine percent of exports came from there. Another factor is that most countries did not follow the US course in imposing far-reaching tariff increases.
“The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker demonstrates the sustained strength of global trade even in the face of headwinds,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. “Trade barriers are
not in the world’s interest. But we should never underestimate the creativity of buyers and sellers around the world who want to do business with each other.”
Tariffs slow trade growth, but do not stop it
US tariffs will slow the growth of global trade according to the overall forecast of the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, but not stop it. In January 2025, before the current wave of tariff increases, the study authors had projected an average annual growth of global goods trade of 3.1 percent for the period 2025 to 2029. In the meantime, only 2.5 percent growth is expected. The sharpest downgrade affected North America: The outlook for the region fell from 2.7 percent in January 2025 to only 1.5 percent in September. Most other regions recorded smaller downgrades.
In contrast, the study’s forecasts for South and Central America and the Caribbean, as well as for the Middle East and North Africa, were even raised. Most countries in these regions were affected to a lesser extent by US tariff increases, it says. Trade in the Middle East is also expected to benefit from higher oil production and more exports.
First half of 2025: Global trade defies tariff turbulence
Moreover, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker concludes: International trade in the first half of 2025 grew faster than in any other half-year since 2010 – with the exception of the recovery after the pandemic-related slump. US imports surged at the start of 2025 because buyers pulled forward their
orders due to the announced tariff increases. China was able to fully offset the decline in its exports to the USA – through increased shipments to the ASEAN region (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as well as through significantly more exports to Africa, to the EU and other markets. Even after the pull-forward effects in the USA had faded, global trade volume remained above the level of the previous year.
Economy continues to rely on foreign markets
The data on international corporate investments in the first half of 2025, according to the study authors, paint a mixed picture, but underscore the general resilience of the global economy. A trend toward shifting investments from abroad to the home market is not evident. For example, the share of cross-border M&A transactions hardly changed. However, it appears that overall uncertainty has dampened some cross-border investments – especially smaller transactions and new investments in the second quarter of 2025.
“The current trends in trade and in international corporate investment in 2025 do not indicate that globalization has gone into reverse,” said Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at the Center for the Future of Management at NYU Stern. “It would indeed be a mistake to ignore the current political risks for globalization. But there is no widespread retreat of companies from international business. Trade crosses the longest distances ever measured. And geopolitical conflicts have only affected a small portion of global international activities. The current data show
that companies actively manage the opportunities and risks of a connected world, rather than retreat to national or regional markets.”
No deep split between geopolitical blocs
Although 2024 recorded the highest number of active global conflicts since World War II, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker does not see a fundamental split of the world economy into rival geopolitical blocs. While direct economic connections between the USA and China continue to decline, and Russia is largely decoupled from Western-oriented economies, it says. But a profound realignment of the world economy along geopolitical lines has so far been absent.
The trade is not becoming more regional
Although many expect otherwise, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker also analyzes: Trade is not becoming more regional. The average distance traveled by traded goods rose in the first half of 2025 to a new record of about 5,000 kilometers, according to the study authors. The share of trade that takes place within the major world regions simultaneously fell to a record low of 51 percent. Foreign direct investment in greenfield projects also developed less regionally. However, the level of regionalization of international M&A activity remained stable.
To measure the degree of globalization, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker analyzes, according to the company, international trade, capital, information, and people flows. On a scale from zero percent (no cross-border flows) to 100 percent (borders and distances have no influence), the current value is 25 percent – and thus almost unchanged compared with the previous peak in
