The global supply chains have changed dramatically in recent years. Global trade is in an ongoing upheaval, driven by geopolitics, protectionism and the effects of climate change. Allianz Trade, the credit insurer, comes to this conclusion in its latest study. It analyzes therein the factors of influence as well as the opportunities and risks for supply chains, trade hubs and transport routes, as reported in a press release dated November 7.
“The supply chains of companies have changed sustainably in recent years: resilience now comes before efficiency,” says Dr. Jasmin Gröschl, Senior Economist at Allianz Trade. “Companies have learned the hard way that goods arriving later is better than not arriving at all; longer transport routes are now often the lesser evil.”
Trade between geopolitically similarly oriented economies is gaining importance, Allianz Trade says, in the context of the trade war, rising tensions and growing protectionism.
“The political orientation now plays a very large role in world trade,” says Gröschl. “If geopolitical distance increases by ten percent, this leads to a decrease in bilateral trade by about two percent. That also means: supply chains must adapt.”
This geopolitical fragmentation of world trade coincides with a revival of protectionism.
Trade volume affected by protectionism almost tripled
Last year alone, the trade volume affected by trade restrictions has nearly tripled according to the study's authors, and concerns goods valued at an estimated $2.7 trillion. That is almost 20 percent of global imports. The main driver, according to expert Gröschl, is primarily newly
introduced import tariffs. By mid-October, 309 new tariffs had been introduced, almost twice as many as in the entire year 2024. This is said to foster increasing friendshoring and regionalization, the study says.
Germany is, according to the analysis, particularly hard hit as an export nation: while in 2023 only about two percent of German exports were affected by new tariff measures, this share had already risen to seven percent in 2024; by mid-November this year the share was around 25 percent of German exports.
More than half of Allianz Trade's expected global trade growth of only two percent in 2025 is due to a rerouting of US imports away from China, a shift of deliveries ahead of the introduction of higher US tariffs, and a stronger diversification of trade. Together, these factors, according to the study, contribute about 1.3 percentage points to the already low projected total growth. For 2026 and 2027, Allianz Trade economists expect a slowdown in global trade in goods and services to +0.6 percent and +1.8 percent, respectively. This illustrates the delayed effects of the trade war and the challenges facing the current trading infrastructure, according to the authors.
In the past two decades, global trade flows have shifted more strongly toward friendly or geographically close countries (“Friendshoring” and regionalization). This is also reflected in the figures of the Allianz Trade study: in several regions, trade within the region relative to the world economy has increased significantly — particularly strongly in the Asian developing countries
(+302 percent), but also in North America (+38 percent), Sub-Saharan Africa (+88 percent) and Latin America (+16 percent). Trade within Asia has grown especially strongly, by +337 percent. But also trade of Asian countries (primarily China) with other regions has increased: exports to Latin America rose by 412 percent and those to Sub-Saharan Africa.
Climate change as a threat to maritime hubs
Aside from geopolitics and protectionism, climate change is also playing an increasingly important role in global trade.
“The risk of political or climatic shocks to international trade hubs is growing,” says Lluis Dalmau, economist at Allianz Trade. “The Suez Canal and the Panama Canal lead the list of high-risk bottlenecks: capacities and alternatives are limited, political risks in almost all sea chokepoints are very high and the climatic risks are rising almost everywhere — for the ports themselves but also in inland shipping due to low water levels, foremost the Yangtze in China as an important trade artery, but for example also on the Danube and the Rhine in Germany.”
Low water levels could, according to the study, also pose a climatic risk for the Port of Hamburg in the future — as a tidal port it is particularly dependent on water levels and tides, in addition to possible storm surges.
Asian hubs are, according to Allianz Trade, efficient and reliable, but are under growing political pressure. European ports score with strong infrastructure, but are increasingly exposed to climatic risks, especially in the south. Hubs from the Middle
East to South Africa ensure efficiency, but remain politically and environmentally vulnerable. In the Americas, reliability is high, but capacities on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are becoming tighter.
The trade hubs of the future
Amid all these ongoing changes, new trade and production centers redraw the world map. The updated Allianz Trade ranking of next-generation trade hubs concludes that economies reposition themselves on three levels – multimodal, logistical and intermediary – as tariffs, sanctions and changes in the supply chain reshape global flows.
The United Arab Emirates (Rank 1) and Malaysia (Rank 3) lead as consolidated multimodal power centers, supported by the strong port infrastructure of ports like Jebel Ali and Port Klang, connecting Asia, the Middle East and Europe. Vietnam jumps to rank 2, driven by rising exports and a new tariff agreement with the USA that cements its role at the center of the redistribution of production in Asia. Saudi Arabia (Rank 4) records the strongest rise, with a jump of eleven places, as lower tariffs and growing non-oil exports expand its trade potential. Kazakhstan (Rank 16) rises to the top ranks as an important logistics hub, with the hubs Khorgos and Nur Zholy increasingly handling Eurasian freight. Further down the list lie Thailand (Rank 8), India (Rank 12) and South Africa (Rank 23), which, despite world-class terminals like Laem Chabang and Tanger Med, lag behind in terms of connectivity, while Indonesia (Rank 11) and Bangladesh (Rank 15) grapple with investment gaps of more than one trillion
