The courier, express and parcel market (KEP) continues to be influenced by the persistently weak economic development in Germany. For the Christmas season (November and December), the Federal Association for Parcel and Express Logistics (BPEX) expects only a slight increase in shipment volumes between one and two percent – effectively stagnation. Overall, around 750 million KEP shipments (B2C, B2B, C2C) are expected to be transported during this period.
This stems from a current market analysis by KE-CONSULT Kurte & Esser GbR on behalf of BPEX (October 2025). During the peak of the Christmas season, parcel services move about 15 million shipments per day, theoretically up to 21 million on peak days. To cope with the expected volumes, the industry is deploying up to 20,000 additional staff and 17,000 additional vehicles again this year, according to a press release by BPEX.
Online retail is
the most important driver
Particularly the private customer business is in focus again. In November and December 2025, around 450 million shipments to private households (B2C) are expected – an increase of almost two percent compared with the previous year (440 million). Thus, online retail remains, according to BPEX, the most important driver of the KEP market. On average, about nine million shipments are delivered daily to private addresses.
The B2B sector, by contrast, shows opposite dynamics: here a slight decline below the previous year's level can be expected. Reasons are the cautious investment and production activity of many industries, geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing structural changes in industry.
The market environment remains tense: economic stagnation, trade sanctions, structural shifts in supply chains and increasing government regulation burden the development of the KEP market. These factors lead to the 2025 Christmas season, despite high
operational performance, not to bring noticeable growth. The slight growth in shipment volumes hides the economic reality: rising energy prices, higher wages and persistently high inflation cause costs for many companies to rise faster than their revenues. For parcel services, it becomes increasingly difficult to operate cost-effectively.
“We have repeatedly shown in recent years that the industry remains capable of delivering, even in difficult times, and reliably supplies the people in Germany,” says Marten Bosselmann, Chairman of the BPEX. “The ongoing difficult economic environment, rising costs and overbearing regulations are putting increasing pressure on companies. This situation endangers the industry's long-term innovation and future viability. We need relief now and also in the medium term so that businesses again have room to breathe and the prerequisites for sustainable market development are secured.”
In the first half of 2025, the KEP industry recorded a
slight increase in shipments of 1.8 percent compared with the previous year's period. A total of 2.03 billion shipments were transported – on average more than 13.5 million per delivery day.
Private consumption is rising
A positive impulse came mainly from online retail (B2C), where the volume rose by 2.6 percent. The B2B sector remained, by contrast, downward (–1.2 percent), as did the express and courier segment, which nearly stagnated. Thus, the trend continues that business shipment volumes are declining and private consumption is rising.
Against the backdrop of the current development, for the entire year 2025 a shipment volume of around 4.37 billion shipments is expected, according to the association. This corresponds to a moderate increase of about two percent relative to the previous year 2024. The detailed results of the market analysis 2025 will be published by BPEX in spring/summer 2026.
