A joint analysis by Upply, Transport Intelligence (Ti), and the International Road Transport Union (IRU) reveals: The spot and contract price indices for European road freight transport aligned at a value of 132.2 points in the second quarter of 2025. The contract price index rose by 1.2 points compared to the first quarter and was 0.7 points above the value of the previous year's quarter. Conversely, the spot price index fell by 2.2 points compared to the quarter and was 2.0 points below the previous year's level. According to the study's authors, spot prices reached their lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2023.
Market Development and Demand Situation
The study shows that road freight traffic between the large economies of Germany, France, Poland, Italy, and Spain has recovered since the low point in December 2024. However, international transport volume between these countries is still below the 2024 values. The IRU points to a continuing driver shortage of 426,000 vacancies in Europe, based on their survey from 2024.
The
sentiment in road freight transport is reported with an index value of 8.2 points in the second quarter of 2025. This suggests that the surveyed companies expect a slight increase in freight rates for the following quarter.
Cost and Capacity Development
The authors of the analysis highlight that the diesel price was 6.4 percent below the level of the first quarter in the second quarter of 2025. However, prices rose again towards the end of the quarter, attributed to the outbreak of the war between Israel and Iran. Toll fees were increased in the first quarter of 2025 in numerous countries, except for Euro-VI semitrailers in Latvia. Year-on-year, increases ranged from 1.8 percent in Italy to 41 percent in Slovakia.
According to the study authors, the number of new truck registrations increased by more than ten percent compared to the quarter. Despite this development, the driver shortage remains a crucial bottleneck for available transport capacity.
Influencing Factors and Economic Context
The study authors describe subdued demand, which is likely
to recover in the medium term, particularly through a revival of retail in the European Union. The cost pressure on companies has decreased as lower diesel prices partially offset increased wages and other operating costs.
There are signs of stabilization in manufacturing. Industrial production in the Eurozone recorded growth in June 2025, new orders stabilized, and the HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.5 points. This is the highest level since August 2022, although still just below the growth threshold of 50 points.
Spot Market Under Pressure
Spot rates fell for the second time in a row and are now at the lowest level since the end of 2023. According to the authors, this reflects weak short-term consumer demand. While grocery retail and food production continue to grow, sentiment in the rest of the retail sector is negative. However, the study assumes that consumer spending will increase later in the year, which could exert pressure on freight rates.
Global Influences and Trade Flows
The analysis points to possible
impacts of new tariffs and shifts in global trade. Given tense trade relations between the USA and China, rising imports from China to Europe could increase demand in road freight transport, especially on routes between cities and seaports.
Long-term Perspectives
According to IRU's assessment, a declining domestic demand, new US tariffs, and increasing global trade volatility will burden Europe's logistics system in the coming months. The organization sees a need for political action in the form of investments in infrastructure, better cross-border access to qualified drivers, and harmonized regulations, such as the newly established weight and dimension limits for EMS vehicles in Spain.
Upply assesses the convergence of spot and contract rates as an expression of a "fragile balance" in the market. Demand remains moderate, pressure on the spot market is low. Since there are only slight movements in the contract price index, transport companies have difficulty fully passing on increased operating costs. This could restrict investment capacity and lead to bottlenecks in the event of a later strong
