In European road freight transport, prices continued to rise in the third quarter of 2025. According to the Upply–Ti–IRU European Road Freight Rate Development Benchmark Reports, both contract and spot prices reached a level of around 134 points. The report indicates for the short-term market an increase of 1.7 points to 134.3. The agreed prices also rose by 1.7 points to 134. In the year-on-year comparison, spot prices increased by 1.9 points, while long-term contracted tariffs gained 3.1 points.
Macroeconomic influences on demand
The macroeconomic data present a mixed picture. According to the study authors, retail volume in the European Union in August 2025 rose by 1.1 percent year-on-year. The PMI for the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone surpassed the growth threshold in August for the first time since mid-2022, reaching 50.7 points. In September the index fell again to
49.8 points. Demand benefits, according to the report, from seasonal stock replenishments ahead of the year-end shopping season and a cautious revival of industrial production.
Michael Clover, Head of Business Development at Ti, said: “The parallel rise in both contract and spot rates reflects a market that is gradually recovering. The industry shows cautious signs of stabilization, while consumer demand provides a solid foundation for growth. The increase in contract rates is also fueled by a return of industrial activity. However, the recovery remains fragile and uneven in Europe, as Germany continues to face challenges, while Spain's economy shows noticeably stronger momentum.”
Capacity bottlenecks due to lower vehicle registrations
The market side is further influenced by a decline in available cargo space. The authors of the report point to a significant drop in new registrations of medium- and heavy-duty trucks.
In Q3, fewer than 32,000 vehicles were registered. This corresponds to a decrease of 39 percent compared with the previous quarter. In Germany, rising corporate insolvencies further aggravate the capacity situation according to the report. The transport and logistics sector recorded in 2024 the highest insolvency frequency of all sectors, with 14 cases per 1,000 VAT‑registered companies.
Cost developments determine price levels
Fuel prices remained largely stable in the third quarter of 2025. Natural gas prices for commercial vehicles continued to fall in Italy and Spain, according to the authors. At the same time, several states raised their toll tariffs. In Romania, the fee rates rose by 17.8 percent, in Bulgaria by 7.7 percent, and in Slovakia by 40.9 percent. In Slovakia, July also saw a VAT increase. For the fourth quarter, the study authors expect unchanged fees, but point
to broader adjustments in the coming year. The report's authors state that the national implementation of the Eurovignette Directive makes tolls a significant cost factor in ongoing operation and thus creates additional price pressure.
Industry market assessments
Market sentiment has noticeably improved according to the report. The European sentiment index for road freight transport rose in the third quarter by 4.5 points to 12.7 and reached its highest level since the end of 2023. Almost half of those surveyed expect rising freight rates in the coming quarter. The share of those predicting falling prices stands at 14 percent, the lowest level in almost two years. The editors of the report see the convergence of spot and contract rates as an indication of a continuing stabilization of market conditions, but still emphasize clear differences between individual countries and transport relations. (av)
