When shipping traffic stalls at central chokepoints, European hinterland transports quickly come under pressure as well. This is shown by a current study by the ifo Institute and EconPol Europe, prepared on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The study shows that German imports and exports depend to a substantial extent on a few maritime bottlenecks such as the Suez Canal or the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Sea trade as a central foundation of German supply chains
According to the figures, around half of all German goods flows outside the European Union are handled by sea. About 90 percent of indirect routes pass through a few global hubs. This concentration means that disruptions at certain chokepoints can affect the entire supply chain. The researchers emphasize:
„The global seaborne traffic concentrates heavily on a few important shipping routes and transshipment hubs.“
Importance of the most important chokepoints
The study names six particularly relevant bottlenecks: the Strait of Hormuz, the
Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Strait of Malacca, the Taiwan Strait, the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal. A substantial part of German foreign trade depends on them. In 2023, almost ten percent of German imports flowed through the Suez Canal. Dependency on the Bab al-Mandab Strait was nearly as high at 9.4 percent. The Strait of Malacca accounted for 8.7 percent, the Taiwan Strait for 7.1 percent. The direct relevance of the Strait of Hormuz was considerably lower at less than one percent.
Differences by product groups
Dependency becomes particularly evident at the level of individual products. The Ifo Institute notes that in 2023 almost 97 percent of German raw mica imports had to pass through the Suez Canal. This mineral resource is used in electronics and construction. Dependency is similarly strong for chemical feedstocks. Thus 92 percent of Germany's imports of malonylurea reached Germany via the Taiwan Strait. For printed circuit boards, the figure was 30 percent via the Suez
Canal. The authors of the study state that such structures are „much more structural than temporary“ – i.e., permanently exist.
Relevance for industries and sectors
The integration of maritime hubs affects not only individual products but also entire industries. The study combines trade data with OECD input-output tables. This allows tracing how large a share of imported intermediate inputs passes through certain bottlenecks.
Particularly notable is the textile, leather and footwear industry. There, between 22 and 25 percent of imported intermediate goods pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Suez Canal. The chemical industry also shows dependencies: six to eight percent of their inputs come via the sea routes Malacca, Bab al-Mandab and Suez. For petroleum products, the share of imports via the Suez Canal lies between 19 and 21 percent.
Different patterns by trading partner
The study also shows that dependence differs strongly by country of origin. Imports from Asia often pass through several bottlenecks in succession, sometimes up
to five. By contrast, goods from North and South America are frequently dependent only on the Panama Canal. For African partner countries, a mixed picture emerges, depending on whether they are located on the Atlantic or Indian Ocean.
Implications for transport and logistics
For transport and logistics companies, this dependence means that any disruption at maritime chokepoints has immediate effects on handling, schedules and hinterland transport in Europe. Whether containers in the Port of Hamburg arrive late or freight trains to southern Germany must be shifted in cadence, the blockage of a single node can throw entire transport chains off rhythm.
Conclusion
The study makes clear that Germany relies to a considerable extent on smooth operations at a few maritime bottlenecks. It is not only the overall volume of affected trade that matters, but also the dependence of individual industries and products. For the logistics sector, this means preparing transport chains early for potential disruptions and monitoring the risks in global
